In Copenhagen, efforts to delay action will raise the stakes higher than ever

This weekend, at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the Danish Prime Minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, flew in to make a shocking announcement that shook everyone at the TckTckTck campaign up. The statement, made in a hastily organized breakfast meeting, was that efforts to push a binding climate deal in Copenhagen would require more time, including a possible second summit meeting in Mexico City in 2010.

US and Danish officials said that they thought completing a full international, legal binding treaty would not be possible, especially as relatively little progress has been made in developing a consensus agreement over the last year.

While many press outlets reported this announcement as the end of the Copenhagen climate process, reality is a bit more complicated and reports of the demise of the treaty are definitely premature. David Turnbull, director of CAN-International, wrote a response, simply entitled "The rumors of Copenhagen's demise have been greatly exaggerated [2]."

Rasmussen dubbed this change, “one agreement, two steps” but the many governments, civil society groups, and others that have pushed the agreement to this point remain focused on an effort to create a fair, ambitious, and binding climate treaty in as rapid a time frame as is possible.

Yet, we have to remember that it is not politicians and governments alone that have brought us this far. The growing real-world climate impacts, a diverse public mandate for action, , the courageous leadership of island and vulnerable nations, and the tireless advocacy of civil society organizations and citizen leaders has built the momentum we have to sign a climate treaty.

What we need now is political leadership and courage from world leaders, to embrace the global public mandate and commit their country and their name behind real targets and a legally binding climate deal.

As the Washington Post reported [3], “The Obama administration will offer numerical emission reduction targets as part of next month's negotiations, as long as the Chinese offer a climate proposal of their own.” One of the most contentious issues is that leaders have made interlocking commitments to agree to real targets, based on the decision of other countries. Yet, who will the leader to step forward and make the first step, triggering a cascade of commitments to action? If citizen action can push a world leader to make that critical first step in Copenhagen, it could change the whole game.

In one hopeful note for US leadership, Reuters reported [4] that President Obama said “"Our aim (in Copenhagen) ... is not a partial accord or a political declaration but rather an accord that covers all of the issues in the negotiations and one that has immediate operational effect." Even with a “two step” process, political leaders are recognizing that delay is unacceptable on financial, scientific, and humanitarian groups.

In fact, as many TckTckTck partners have pointed out, the International Energy Agency reported that every year of delay will impose over $500 billion of dollars in additional costs [5] from global warming and the need for rapid action later, as well as lead to a large and growing toll in human lives. Civil society groups, island nations, and many African nations have been pushing for climate targets in recognition of this very fact. To jumpstart this process and avoid larger losses, developing nations, like President Nasheed of the Maldives’ have announced a stated goal of becoming a carbon neutral country by 2020.

So, the big question remains: is this a retreat from creating a Copenhagen climate treaty or a path to committing to an international climate agreement? The answer probably lies with what still remains to be decided at the Copenhagen climate conference. NRDC’s Jacob Schmidt noted [6], “months not years -- could be worthwhile if countries use the time to firm up their commitments to reduce their global warming pollution”.

While, observers swivel to focus on the US Senate, they might want to note the massive and growing international climate movement that has been growing across borders and has unified groups from diverse constituencies, from religious groups, humanitarian organizations, medical groups, and so many more.

The actual deal making process, that has moved at a snail's pace all year, could be hammered out in Copenhagen, if civil society organizations and citizen leaders make the case that leadership is needed and keep demanding real progress towards a solution. The Copenhagen process may be organized around governments, but action has been driven by the leadership of ordinary citizens, from all walks of life, coming together to call for a better vision of the future, one that not only reverses the march of dangerous climate change, but helps us tackle some of the world’s largest challenges.

A fair, ambitious, and binding climate treaty can create millions of green jobs [7], reduce healthcare costs, lift millions out of poverty, and put renewable energy into the hands of everyday citizens in the developing world. If we recognize the power that this hopeful vision of the future has had in inspiring and mobilizing millions of people around the world, we can see the potential for progress, if delay on a final legally binding deal is measured in months, not years. After all, time has run out.

Now, more than ever, we need a massive and public mandate of action, inspired by civil society leadership on climate change, so that we can move forwards on a climate treaty that secures a better world for our children. As a movement, we are still ready [8] for and are working harder than ever for a global climate deal. Are you? [8]