A new report out today called The Copenhagen Diagnosis updates the state of climate change science on the eve of the Copenhagen climate talks.

The scientific basis for the Copenhagen treaty draws on the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is made up of the best minds in climate science. The latest report from the IPCC was released two years ago, and it is based on the scientific research of the previous three years. So the The Copenhagen Diagnosis is a very important update on the science, because a lot more research has been done since that time.

When we talk about the clock "tck-ing" and the urgent need for a fair, ambitious and binding deal in Copenhagen, a lot of that sense of urgency is grounded in what the science is telling us. Unfortunately, The Copenhagen Diagnosis finds that the need to act is more urgent the ever.

The report finds that:

  • Global carbon dioxide emissions are up 40 per cent from 1990.
  • The global warming trend has continued, despite a temporary decline in solar energy.
  • Both Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an accelerating rates, as are glaciers the world over.
  • Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average prediction from the IPCC's last report.
  • Global average sea-level has risen at a rate 80% above past IPCC predictions over the past 15 years.
  • Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets. Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could pass irreversible tipping points if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century.

Not good. The time to act is now and we need to ensure that our political leaders know about this update on the science and how important it is that we deal with this issue once and for all at the upcoming Copenhagen climate summit.

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